Now this is just one die-hard fan’s opinion and I may be proven wrong in the long run by “Big Business” in TNT-land, but I wanted to share some thoughts on our favorite show, overnight ratings numbers and the prospects for the return of SouthLAnd for a new season.

First off, we need to understand what everyone is talking about when they talk about these ratings numbers. What are we really counting? Contrary to popular belief, we are not counting actual viewers in the United States. Excuse me for a moment, but I have to use a dirty word here. We are talking statistics. That’s right, just like in polls, the Nielsen company is using statistical projections to calculate those numbers that are presented as “fact” to everyone. The reality is, there are only something like 25,000 households actually being counted (I could be wrong) out of the entire population of the US. That is a very, very tiny statistical sampling. How widely distributed is that sampling? Over what geographic area? What races, incomes, household types, etc., etc.,? Nobody knows – it’s a “trade secret” that is closely held by the Nielsen group. So where was the “dirty word?” Remember what Mark Twain said? “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Next, you have to take into consideration what is being counted. Prime time television is all about the time slot so advertising can be sold – it is the almighty dollar! Of primary importance to the pundits of the television ratings world is the network shows and the prime time hours of 8-11 (or 7-10 central time). But wait a minute! Isn’t SouthLAnd on cable? That’s right, TNT is a cable network, not broadcast. So their numbers don’t have to be extravagantly huge the way they do on broadcast networks, because they don’t have a boatload of affiliates out there trying to stay on the air, also selling advertising to local markets. There is also another hitch in this that doesn’t appear to be taken into consideration by the ratings pundits: HD time shifting on the West coast. Yes, even as I get on my own cable provider, the High Definition version of TNT is provided on the East coast feed, not the West coast feed. So even if I was a Nielsen family, my watching would not be counted in the “prime time 10pm” viewing numbers for the show, because I actually watched it at 7pm. The last I heard, Charter, Comcast and Time Warner all do this – which covers pretty much all but a very small percentage of cable viewers on the west coast.

Let’s throw another monkey wrench into the mix! TNT re-airs the show 3 hours after its first airing. This is pretty standard for cable networks, especially when they have feeds from both coasts. After all, some cable systems send everything through on the West coast using the East coast feed. If someone couldn’t watch the show at 7pm and they saw all the advertising about SouthLAnd being on Tuesdays at 10pm, then they better have it on at 10pm, right? However, the reported Nielsen numbers are not going to be including people who watched the show at 1am the next day.

Taking all of that into consideration, the numbers that I’ve heard were that Season 1 of SouthLAnd averaged approximately 1.3 million viewers in “official” Nielsen ratings for the Tuesday 10pm time slot. Season 2 episode 1 had 2.5 million and episode 2 had 2.055 million. It’s too early to get the DVR numbers, so we have to use those for now, as they have just this week released the Feb 15th DVR numbers for some shows (really, in this day and age of technology?).

The season premiere increased viewers by 1.2 million over the season 1 average. That’s phenomenal! In just one time slot, not even taking into consideration the replay times, the 7pm West coast viewers, TNT.tv streaming viewers or iTunes sales – the latter two of which Nielsen does not even count but TNT most assuredly does! Only TNT knows what the numbers are for the streaming from their own website, but we know that SouthLAnd Phase Three reached at least as high as #23 on the iTunes Top Purchased TV Shows list last week. Considering the number of sales that happen on iTunes every week, that has got to be a considerable number.

Certainly, Butch & Sundance numbers went down a bit (about 18%), but should we be worried? I’m not! White Collar was having its season finale at the same time, so I am certain that a large number of people chose to watch it and DVR SouthLAnd, which will not show up in the “official” numbers for 3-4 weeks. An even larger number of people that like SouthLAnd also like The Good Wife, who again choose to DVR it and/or watch it on the replay. Yes, some of them may even have gone back to NBC to do the same with Parenthood. Is that disaster for SouthLAnd? Not at all – this is a cable show now. According to the data available on the internet, shows like Damages, Mad Men, Rescue Me and other top cable hits have seen increases in their ratings from DVR viewers as much as 59.4% over their next day reported numbers. That means that “measly” 2.5m and 2.055m could be as 3.985m and 3.276m – not bad at all if you think about it.

None of this, however, takes into consideration the single most important factor: critical acclaim. SouthLAnd is damned good television, which both the fans and the critics agree. (Apparently, so does NBC, or why would they be plastering the internet with banner ads specifically targeting websites that have SouthLAnd content with their ads for Parenthood?) Critics from sources such as Newsday, Entertainment Weekly, the Washington Post, the Boston Herald, the New York Daily News, Variety and many more have given it perfect or near perfect reviews. The show as an impeccable pedigree in John Wells, Chris Chulack and Ann Biderman and an incredible ensemble cast. If a show like Mad Men, which has never received ratings higher than 2.3 million viewers in its entire history, can get renewed year after year, but also get award after award at the Emmys and Golden Globes, would it not be in TNT’s best interests to invest in at least one more season for SouthLAnd and see what happens in the upcoming award season? After all, I think we would all agree that there is plenty of material out there that is award-worthy, and with a guarantee of renewal, who knows what could happen later this year when it comes time for Emmy nominations?

So keep the faith, SouthLAnd fans! TNT has ALL the numbers, not just the hype you see on the internet from a bunch of bitter old pundits who spend all their time trying to influence what they can’t possibly understand – excellent, quality television that has finally found the home where it belongs.